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Mpiyakhe Dhlamini's avatar

The American loss was perfectly predictable, what you call the center right and center left are now very much in the minority now. The vast majority of Americans are suffering from war exhaustion. To win this war would have taken a massive ground invasion which in turn would have taken months of staging under fire from Iranian missiles and drones (keep in mind that US troops had to leave bases in neighbouring countries and go live in hotels). Americans are no longer ready to make that kind of sacrifice for anyone apart from maybe maintaining their regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, protecting Western Europe and their five eyes partners.

Iran also knew this and actually welcomed the war even at the cost of losing their Supreme leader (who most likely intentionally got himself martyred since he was not hiding in one of their hardened bunkers). It's quite amazing that the American government fell for this trap which has led to a minor strategic victory (Iran giving up its uranium if the deal gets back on track) and a massive loss of prestige for the US and communicated to China that America probably won't come to Taiwan's aid in case of an invasion.

Given all of this, South Africa supporting an American deal that most of the rest of the world supports and having normal diplomatic relations with Iran as we do with most countries (I know that we single out Israel, that makes us hypocrites like everyone else in geopolitics), is not out of the norm. In fact we still buy a lot of Iranian oil even as steps have been taken to depend more on African oil exporters and of course we have other economic relations with Iran, MTN being the biggest example.

Americans were culturally unsuited for the kind of commitment running the world takes. Unlike most other empires their hegemony is ending largely by choice. As bad as things are for the Iranian people, there are billions of people living under oppressive regimes notably in Asia and Africa. America has no appetite to free them all.

Ilan Preskovsky's avatar

Thanks for the excellent, thorough comment (and the follow!). I don't actually disagree on most points. I do think the US didn't have the stomach for the war, and most especially not Trump, and in a battle of wills, the death cult that leads Iran was bound to win.

But the US did owe the Iranian people military assistance more than other oppressed people in other parts of the world, as you correctly note, even just because it explicitly promised them help when they were risking their lives protesting the regime. Also, Iran is an entirely different kind of threat to the established world order than, say, Myanmar or the Sudan, and attacking the Islamic Republic when it was weakest did seem like a smart strategic move.

As for whether the US should get involved with world affairs, I certainly understand all the arguments against it - and as someone who feels like war should be the absolute last resort, I know doubt agree with much of it - but I can't help but come back to WWII and I shudder to think what would have happened had the US not joined the allies, and for that matter, how many millions of lives may have been saved had they entered a lot earlier. And yet, asking American soldiers to put their lives on the line for other countries is a tremendous ask. It is all clearly very complicated. But I will say this, if America doesn't maintain its hegemony as the world's super power, a much less benevolent power will undoubtedly take its place.

As for SA's diplomatic relationship with the Islamic Republic, I would obviously rather we didn't, but I understand the realities of how economic and diplomatic ties are crucial even with countries who don't share our values. My problem is that the ANC goes far beyond simply maintaining diplomatic and economic ties, and has fostered a cosier relationship with Tehran than pretty much every other country on Earth to the point that it acts as a "respectable front" for the regime and constantly defends even its most barbaric actions. For this, there is absolutely no excuse.

Mpiyakhe Dhlamini's avatar

I agree with Iran being a unique threat, they've proven it in this war. I can't believe how weak the Gulf Arab states are. If Middle East power could be balanced, Iran would be much less of a threat.