Everyone is now writing and talking about the outcome of the recent local government election in South Africa. The result is clear: the ANC is no longer anywhere near the dominant political force it once was. The DA is a rising influence that must now be taken seriously in a role other than merely the largest opposition party. It is now indeed the dominant party in most metros and many smaller municipalities. This immediately gives the DA more bargaining power and the ANC less of it. It is a cardinal shift that will have a considerable influence on coalition formation, which is now the order of the day in many municipalities.
It seems to me that the overarching coalition question is now whether the DA and the ANC will move into coalitions; the possibility of which already had its foundations laid with the emergence and precarious continued existence of the GNU. What will now change the rules of the GNU, however, is the DA’s newly acquired, considerably greater bargaining power at municipal level. The GNU experiment clearly showed that the ANC could stamp a much larger imprint on the functioning of the GNU because of its large majority, which was used to bargain for (claim) the key portfolios for itself, such as of course foreign affairs and finance. This allowed the ANC, for all practical purposes, to (mostly) roll out its own policies, with little the DA could do about it if they were opposed to such policies.
One of the DA’s biggest lessons from their GNU experience is thus probably that their participation was more symbolic in nature than anything else. Yes, a few DA ministers performed well and this did not go unnoticed by the voters. It was also of strategic importance for the DA, as it proved that they can perform well not only at municipal level, but also at national level.
Of greater importance, however, was the DA’s willingness to create the GNU together with the ANC. This dealt a death blow to the perception that many of the voters who previously saw the DA — mostly on the basis of the ANC’s propaganda — as a white party that harked back to Apartheid. It clearly proved the opposite and undoubtedly further convinced municipal voters that their DA votes would not really be anti-ANC, because the opinion polls showed that the majority of voters liked the idea of the GNU. It was a major symbolic breakthrough for the DA — which, in addition to their good reputation with municipal governance — undid a great deal of former hesitation to vote for the DA. I believe that this is one of the reasons why the DA, despite internal setbacks and criticism from their traditional voter base, did not leave the GNU. It was a very good strategic decision, which now plays very well into the next phase of national governance, namely negotiations over the composition of coalitions at local government level.
This brings us to what numerous analysts see as the most logical, practical and stable coalition formula to promote national stability: coalition formation between the DA and the ANC, as the primary — and preferably sole — coalition partners. The reason I say preferably the sole coalition partners is the observation that the ANC’s then move to let smaller parties into the GNU, in my view, did not add much value. It sometimes helped the ANC, because it was nice for the leaders of the smaller parties to bark along with the big dogs and sometimes to play kingmakers by throwing their support behind the largest party of that era, namely the ANC. I think the DA might now in certain cases also try the same at municipal level; this time to their advantage as the new majority party at local government level in many cases. The ANC will, however, see through such an attempt, because it was precisely their GNU strategy where they had the majority — and they will probably want to do the same again to their own advantage, where possible at local government level.
I believe, however, that an effort will be made to stay as close as possible to two-party coalitions between only the DA and the ANC, in order to bring about more effective government practice at local government level where the DA-ANC sum adds up to over 50%.
What of course reduces the DA’s bargaining power in such coalition formations — even if they hold the majority of votes in certain cases — is that the municipal officials who previously served an ANC-controlled city council are, in far too many cases, ANC cadres who unfortunately — as my own experience over many years in the inner circles of ANC state administration has taught me — were not appointed on merit and because of their abilities. Some of them will have to be replaced, and this will cause a great deal of tension between the coalition partners. As a senior state official under the ANC for many years myself, I can personally testify how difficult it was to get rid of officials legally. Even worse, I experienced how stubborn officials can drag their feet in carrying out instructions and how they even deliberately “misunderstand” instructions and then simply say they are sorry about the “misunderstanding”. This of course causes major delays and then reflects poorly on the councillors in charge.
Many officials were of course also involved in the corruption of former ANC councillors and know where the proverbial bodies are buried. This gives them a hold over the ANC councillors in the newly formed coalitions.
Where the ANC of course enjoys a major advantage over the DA is their control over the national government. They will be able to use this to force concessions on coalitions, because their financial transfers to municipalities make up the lion’s share of the funds that municipalities have to carry out their obligations. Legislation that obliges municipalities to apply certain policies is also promulgated at national level. These can be laws that take pro-ANC ideology as starting point and end goal and that then dominate municipal agendas, despite the coalition agreement at local level.
As a result of what was said in the preceding paragraph about the ANC’s national dominance until at least 2029, this means that the DA will have to strive seriously to increase their national influence by means of the GNU. Their improved bargaining power due to their success in the election at municipal level will help in this regard. Quid pro quo between the DA and the ANC — between municipal level and national level — will have to apply in order to prevent deadlocks in negotiations from crippling service delivery at local level. The same of course applies with regard to the relationships with district councils and provincial governments.
Now I must unfortunately temper somewhat my previous wish about the merciless destruction of a weakened ANC — which I put on record in a previous article. The realities on the ground, as I have set them out in the paragraphs above, will unfortunately not yet fulfil my wish. To quote a controversial politician who likes a particular chant: “at least for now” we will not be able to finish off the ANC; for all the reasons mentioned above. That said, I must add that the DA councillors in coalition with the ANC will have to be mini-Zilles with steel in their pipes. They will have to allow concessions and compromises only in extreme cases, about which they will have to reflect very carefully. There will mainly have to be zero accommodation with regard to, for example, corruption and incompetence. It will have to be decided at national level by the DA what those red lines are that may not be crossed at the municipal level and what criteria will have to be used to determine whether, and under what circumstances, exceptions might perhaps be made under exceptional circumstances.
It boils down to never trusting the ANC, even as a coalition partner, since ideologues like them see compromises and concessions simply as necessary, temporary retreats from their actual Marxist-Leninist/socialist agenda. But granting the weakened ANC that reprieve until the 2029 general elections could have two positive outcomes:
One, the coalitions work so well and perform so well, and impress the electorate so much, that the two parties (DA and ANC) come to realise that they can in effect amalgamate to form a new Centre Party, where according to opinion polls most South African voters live anyway. No challenges from outside will be able to beat such an alliance/amalgamated party in 2029.
Two, since it is the more moderate ANC leaders (not the Mashatiles/Lesufis) who will be willing to form the local government DA/ANC coalitions I suggested, and who consented to the popular national GNU-arrangement to be adjusted accordingly — as also suggested — a softening of ideological obsessiveness will likely take hold among the moderate faction of the ANC, since they will observe the successes brought about at both national and municipal levels.
The reason for me being confident of the two stated positive outcomes is the fact that only liberalised policies will change the developmental landscape of South Africa, nationally and locally. Fact is, the centrist, socialist doctrines of the ANC totally failed all development tests for decades. To try the same again would be insane. I think that the moderate ANCs also realised that by now. That is why I can refer to them as “moderate” and that is why they have not yet broken away from the ANC, as many radicals did. I believe that the remaining radicals (firm ideologues) will abandon the ANC ship soon after the DA/ANC coalitions I propagated become a reality. That will be good riddance, since it will force the hand of the Marxist-Leninist/socialist ideologues still in the party — those ones holding South Africa’s progress back, and have done so for many, many years. Looking at the recent local government election results, a growing majority of South African voters also saw that reality and want it changed.
I therefore believe that DA and ANC cooperation has never made more sense than precisely now after the outcome of the municipal elections. It is a scenario that can bring about the best possible “stability” in municipalities’ affairs in the shortest possible time. At the same time, it will encourage adjustments to the national GNU, which would make a lot of sense in terms of the overall message local government voters gave the politicians: by far the majority of South Africans trust the ANC and the DA.
Piet du Plessis is a retiree with a long history of applied socio-economic development. A liberated Afrikaner who has moved beyond self-flagellation and believes that he has been freed to live out his cultural pride and values, and to proclaim them openly when appropriate.
