Celebrating Failure: Why South Africa’s Matric Results Are a Lie

Debating the 30% pass issue is really like debating how to repaint the walls of a house that is clearly falling apart.

Photo by Feliphe Schiarolli on Unsplash

Written By: Michael Caplan

Same Old Vicious Circle Of Stagnation

So, we have come once again to the Matric-announcement-season. It is tough to find something new by way of comment.

The same points are made each year around this time.

It has been noted again that; in public schools there is about a 50% drop-out rate between grade 1 and Matric – this cohort should be double the size. That and a variety of other factors make the public-school pass rate not much more than a sham.

The mainstream media, including such respected publications as the Daily Maverick, have been happy to report the 88% pass rate as an achievement worth celebrating.

Renowned educationalist Prof Jonathan Jansen brings us a dose of reality in his assessment:

“These results are quite meaningless. As you know for the past several years the constant increase in the results have defied both statistical and political gravity…The truth is not what you heard from the minister…So what are we celebrating – a relatively small percentage of kids that started school in South Africa finishing 12 years of schooling. That is an embarrassment…What we need to turn to is not this annual performance – this theatre.” (Newzroom Africa Interview 13 January 2026)

Most of the matriculants will not get a job or a place in any tertiary institution.

A Bachelor pass (BP) is talked about and celebrated by public and private schools a like. Yet few know what the BP actually requires. According to the Department of Basic Education website:

Bachelor’s degree pass requirements:

– Must obtain at least 40% in Home Language.

– Must obtain at least 50% in four subjects, excluding Life Orientation.

– Must obtain at least 30% in one other subject.

– Must pass at least six out of seven subjects.

The IEB BP requirements, according to their website, are virtually identical except they require “a minimum of 30% in two other subjects rather than one.

This so-called Bachelor pass is shockingly low – nowhere near a realistic university entrance.

Simple solutions – not rocket science

The fact is that - and what the state is in denial about - is that the basics of Basic Education are not difficult to fix. We need decent efficient management, elimination of corruption to ensure that the massive amounts of funds going into education actually build a decent system.

Of course, politics gets in the way, creating powerful destructive obstacles. Vested interests and trade unions like SADTU to name but a few. Getting rid of these would eat into the patronage system that these elites have long since begun to rely on. So, elites fight to the death for their gravy.

In a short order these voices will be ignored – no changes will happen and SA will move on to the rest of the year.

What we have then is a vicious circle of stagnation. Just like in a host of other spheres, there is endemic failure when the state is in control. Needless to say, those in power have no expertise in the field of education – they are there because of their loyalty.

Siviwe Gwarube – Minister of Basic Education

I would agree with Edwin Naidu’s assessment of the Democratic Alliance Minister of Education (The Star 22/12). The party has sacrificed its opposition role; regularly exposing previous education ministers for the abysmal state of public education. Now that has stopped and thus far, I don’t think we have seen much difference. To be fair, perhaps 6 months is a little too soon to judge but as Naidu says “Gwarube must up her game”. Naidoo rightfully points out the irony of a DA minister, Gwarabe, becoming the “Chief cheerleader” of these results.

In the future we hope that under Gwarube we will see a thorough and honest reflection on a system that has failed for decades.

When education is in private hands leaders can produce remarkable innovative solutions, as is evidenced in my previous article series on this website.

If these solutions and options can grow, despite a government that generally seems allergic and stubbornly averse to privatisation in general, just imagine how much more the private education sector could do if/when the state becomes encouraging or even nurturing in this area.

“The 30% red herring”

One debate that has surfaced recently is that of the 30% pass rate for Matric subjects in the National Senior Certificate. Certainly, raising this shameful pass rate would be a good thing. It is one of the reasons public schools can appear more successful every year.

Nevertheless, the entire 30% debate is essentially a red herring; it is virtually irrelevant. If it were to change tomorrow it would make no material difference to a public-school education system that has far bigger fundamental problems – mismanagement, corruption, hopeless inefficiency and wasteful expenditure.

Debating the 30% pass issue is really like debating how to repaint the walls of a house that is clearly falling apart.

Some have even argued that (eg DA’s Sakhile Mngade via Tik tok 4/12) “...The only thing that happens if you overnight just up the pass rate to 50% is that you exclude hundreds and thousands of learners from an opportunity to further their education either vocationally or otherwise”

This is nonsensical – the vast majority of public-school students are already being denied quality educational opportunities on a massive scale. Lifting the pass rate will make no difference because it is not the cause of the fundamental problems in state education.

NETC (National Education and Training Council)

As an aside, Mgande also states that we should wait for the National Education and Training Council to report back on what is needed to right the public school system. Frankly we do not need any further investigations to realise that the key problems with the system are obvious and have been for decades. What is needed is urgent action, which should have been visible by now from the DA’s Minister of Basic Education.

To quote Prof Jansen again, writing in The Herald 5 December 2025, “You cannot fix the basic problems of the school system by tinkering with the 30% pass rate. The 30% argument amounts to cheap political shots. There are political ideals and there is the reality of our classrooms. We need to get these two things to meet and the way to do that is not idle rhetoric but a clearer understanding of why the school system is in trouble in the first place.”

Michael Caplan, an Associate of the Free Market Foundation, is a History and English teacher with 26 years’ experience in mostly private schools in Johannesburg. He holds an MA in History and has a strong interest in libertarianism and the free market.