Ceasefire or Stage Play? How Hamas and Iran Are Testing the Fragile Truce
The Middle East now teeters between opportunity and escalation. Israel is under pressure to continue withdrawals; Hamas manipulates ceasefires for optics; and Iran edges toward nuclear breakout.
Written By: Phenyo Matabane
Two years after Hamas’s brutal October 7 attacks on Israel, the wounds are far from healed. Just yesterday, the bodies of three murdered hostages were handed over to Israel through the Red Cross - proof that even in death, Hamas continues to hold the power to torment. Only eight deceased hostages, Israeli and foreign, remain in Gaza.
On 29 September 2025, U.S. President Donald J. Trump stood beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House and unveiled an ambitious new attempt to stabilise Gaza and the wider Middle East. His 20 Point Plan promised to preserve the ceasefire, dismantle Hamas’s war machine, and establish transitional governance inside Gaza.
Hamas, surprisingly, agreed. Last month, 20 Israeli hostages and 10 bodies were returned - though one corpse turned out not to be a hostage at all. The plan calls for 48 living and deceased captives in total; 29 have now been accounted for. But the uneasy calm conceals two gathering storms: Iran’s revived nuclear ambitions and Hamas’s familiar pattern of deception.
Ceasefires That Couldn’t Hold
Since 2023, attempts at halting the bloodshed have come and gone like desert winds.
The first truce, in November 2023, was meant to last four days: 50 Israeli hostages for 150 Palestinian prisoners, plus humanitarian aid. Accusations of violations came almost immediately, yet both sides extended it twice.
A year later, Washington, Doha and Cairo brokered another, more elaborate agreement. It began with the release of 33 Israeli hostages for roughly 1 900 Palestinian prisoners, partial IDF withdrawals and expanded aid. Later stages were meant to deliver a permanent ceasefire - until Hamas suddenly stopped cooperating, claiming Israel had broken the deal.
Israel answered with a surprise offensive in March. Around that time, Trump floated a radical idea: U.S. administrative control of Gaza, turning the enclave into “the Middle East’s Riviera.” Netanyahu was intrigued; other capitals were wary.
The September Plan - and the Performance
Trump’s latest initiative, announced in September 2025, reflects his long-standing desire to “end endless wars.” He argued that Hamas needed a ceasefire more than anyone and reminded the world that Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza (meant to bring peace) had instead created a haven for extremists.
The plan’s first results looked promising: IDF units pulled back from urban areas, aid convoys rolled in, and the hostage exchange began. Israel still controls more than half of Gaza but is expected to reduce that to 40%, then 15%, as later phases proceed. Yet Hamas has again shown that it treats ceasefires as theatre. According to verified IDF footage released last Monday, Hamas operatives were filmed removing the remains of deceased hostages from a structure prepared in advance, re-burying them nearby, then summoning Red Cross representatives to stage a fake “discovery.”
Such cynical choreography shows why diplomacy with Hamas so often collapses. It plays both sides of the lens - militant by night, humanitarian by day - eroding trust with every staged gesture.
Tehran’s Quiet Calculations
While the cameras were rolling in Gaza, Iran was moving quietly in Tehran.
In mid-October 2025, the Islamic Republic declared the nuclear restrictions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action officially void. Iranian officials insist they remain open to diplomacy - but “no longer bound by limitations.”
In practice, that means Iran can once again enrich uranium without meaningful oversight. Al Jazeera reported that Tehran vowed never to surrender its enrichment rights and warned Israel of “severe consequences” for any future attack - despite being the first to strike earlier this year.
After Israeli and U.S. strikes on nuclear sites, Iran’s parliament suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and promised to “make up for lost time.” Its logic is simple: rebuild from a stronger baseline while using the programme as leverage.
Ironically, the Gaza ceasefire gives Iran breathing space. With Israel distracted by negotiations and territorial withdrawals, Tehran can accelerate enrichment, fortify underground facilities, and cast itself as a resurgent regional power - ready for renewed talks, or confrontation if necessary.
The Present Moment
Netanyahu’s office confirms Israel has entered Phase 1 of the ceasefire. The IDF has pulled back from several areas; Hamas has released 20 hostages within 72 hours under Red Cross supervision. Hundreds of displaced Palestinians are trickling home, and aid — food, medicine, fuel - is finally moving through.
To monitor compliance, the U.S. plans to deploy 200 troops to lead a multinational coordination force with the UAE, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Meanwhile, Iran’s defiance triggered automatic “snapback” sanctions. Britain, France and Germany are searching for a new diplomatic framework to keep nuclear weapons out of Iranian hands. Trump, ever the deal-maker, insists he still wants “peace with Iran” - but sanctions alone, he says, are not the answer.
Three weeks into the truce, every falsehood from Hamas and every enrichment step from Tehran pulls the region closer to collapse. The progress is real, but so is the peril.
Between Peace and Plutonium
The Middle East now teeters between opportunity and escalation. Israel is under pressure to continue withdrawals; Hamas manipulates ceasefires for optics; and Iran edges toward nuclear breakout.
Phase 2 of the ceasefire could begin - or implode - at any moment.
Whether this fragile peace survives will depend not on declarations or photo-ops, but on truth, restraint and verification. Because in a region where even funerals can be staged for the cameras, reality itself has become a weapon.
Phenyo Matabane is a consultant and a master’s candidate in economics, passionate about Africa’s development. He has served in student governance at the University of Pretoria and continues to support community-based projects in townships for the youth.